Does a Certain Rule Exist in the Long-Term Change of a City’s Livability? Evidence from New York, Tokyo, and Shanghai

Livability is the ultimate goal of city development. However, the question of whether the changing pattern of a city’s livability follows a certain rule or not has seldom been argued. To address the question, three cities, including New York, Tokyo, and Shanghai are selected for case studies. Based on a proposed assessment framework, the long-term trend and determinants of three cities’ livability are quantified and investigated. The results suggest that the livability of three cities demonstrates a similar changing pattern during the last decades, with the level going through a three-staged N-curve development, increasing at the beginning, then declining in the mid-term, and rebounding afterward. It implies that the staged development rule should be followed when constructing a livable city. Efforts should be targeted towards the most underlying aspects in different periods. The empirical analysis of the three cities ascertains the existence of a development rule regarding livability, and suggests many potential uses for decision-making support.